S&P 500 Technical Analysis for 25 March 2013 (1551)
Immediate term look for 1578 whilst above 1542.
Resistance
| 1602 | 1578 | 1564 | 1551 |
Support
| 1542 | 1506 | 1485 | 1464 | 1398 | 1343 |
In the near term, the 21 EMA at 1542 is providing support. Look to the upper Bollinger band at 1578 for the next upward target. Oscillators have not shown any signs of being overstretched albeit with slightly fading momentum. The general upward trend has been established since Mar 2009 with the current medium term trend in place since November 2012. Directional indicators continue to just about support this momentum. As such, whilst above 1506, the upward trend looks in place.
Brent Technical Analysis for 20 March 2013 (108.14)
Brent Forecast for 20 March 2013 (108.14)
View: In the short term, prices should consolidate with upside capped at 110.27 to 111.05. However, the bias is negative with 105.95 and 103.46/103.15 likely targets.
Since the 4 month trendline was broken in early Feb, prices have declined by around 8%. However, of more note is the re-entry back into the prior horizontal trading range from Jul 12 to Jan12 which was bounded by 111.05 and 98.70. Given the over head cloud and declining momentum, after a period of consolidation, prices should continue to retrace the Nov12-Feb12 advance with 105.95, 103.15 and potentially 98.59 in sight.
130.06 1-Aug H
122.01 21-Aug H
117.87 8-Feb H
114.50 Daily cloud upper
114.10 Short term trendline resistance
113.36 Bollinger upper band
113.32 23.6% retrace of Nov12-Feb13 advance
111.91 50 DMA
111.05 Medium term trendline resistance
110.51 38.2% retrace of Nov12-Feb13 advance
110.27 21 EMA
110.18 Bollinger MA line
109.02 9 EMA
108.95 Daily cloud lower
108.23 50% retrace of Nov12-Feb13 advance
108.14 Spot
107.37 11-Jan L
106.99 Bollinger lower band
105.95 61.8% retrace of Nov12-Feb13 advance
103.46 7-Dec L
103.15 76.4% retrace of Nov12-Feb13 advance
98.70 Medium term trendline support
98.59 5-Nov L
95.75 Long term trendline support
Bund Technical Analysis for 18 March 2013 (144.08)
Bund Forecast for 18 March 2013 (144.08)
View: Gap above medium term horizontal resistance signals bullish towards 145.60. View negated if gap closed, i.e. <143.50.
The Bund has gapped above a horizontal resistance line (range 143.25-143.75) set since last July. If it doesn’t close this gap within the next few sessions, then the 123.6% and 138.2% extensions of the Nov12-Jan13 declines will be in sight: 144.88 and 145.60. Directional indicators favour a trend and oscillators and %B bandwith support the strength of the move. There may be consolidation back to the previous resistance line (now support) but with such a powerful break, odds favour a continued push higher. If the gap is closed within the next few sessions then such a failure, at the very least, would lead to retreat back to the daily cloud (141.30).
145.60 138.2% retrace of Nov12-Jan13 decline
144.88 123.6% retrace of Nov12-Jan13 decline
144.69 18-Mar H
144.47 Bollinger upper band
144.08 Spot
143.73 10-Dec H
143.64 23-Jul H
143.36 4-Mar H
143.25 Short term trendline support
143.14 9 EMA
142.58 76.4% retrace of Nov12-Jan13 decline
142.42 21 EMA
142.37 Bollinger MA line
142.27 8-Mar L
141.86 61.8% retrace of Nov12-Jan13 decline
141.30 Daily cloud upper
141.29 50% retrace of Nov12-Jan13 decline
140.27 Bollinger lower band
140.05 Daily cloud lower
138.84 30-Jan L
138.28 17-Sep L
138.16 16-Aug L
Gold Technical Analysis for 14 March 2013 (1580)
Gold Forecast for 14 March 2013 (1580)
View: Gold is in a short term downtrend but longer term is near the bottom of its range.
For the past 6 months, oscillators have been in a downward trend and at present, Gold is touching this resistance line. An oscillator break of this line followed by price breaks of 1620 and 1645 would stem the down tide, but serious work would need to be done to break the overhead cloud at 1665-1680. This should be put in a longer term context where a horizontal range band between 1525 and 1800 has defined the limits of the price movements. Unless this oscillator downtrend is broken, prices should return back to 1560. Any lower than 1555 would see the lows of the long term range revisited.
1754 23-Nov H
1723 12-Dec H
1696 22-Jan H
1680 Daily cloud upper
1665 Daily cloud lower
1645 Medium term trendline resistance
1620 26-Feb H
1614 Bollinger upper band
1597 21 EMA
1590 15 Aug L
1587 Bollinger MA line
1585 3-Aug L
1585 9 EMA
1581 Spot
1561 8-Mar L
1560 Bollinger lower band
1560 Medium term trendline support
1555 21-Feb L
S&P 500 Technical Analysis for 7 March 2013 (1544)
S&P 500 Forecast for 7 March 2013 (1544)
View: 1552 looks like the next target with 1576 in sight beyond that.
Oscillator strength is moving gradually higher suggesting 1552 (2 Nov 2007 high) will be the next target. Given the sustained strength readings from this entire rally, it is entirely possible that 1576, the all time high, will be taken out as well leading the S&P into unknown territory. Initial pullback should be supported by the ST trendline support at 1532 but look for 1517 (21 EMA and Bollinger MA line) to provide more support in case the former is breached. Only a breach of 1495 and subsequently 1485 would suggest a real pause in this upward momentum and indicate sideways congestion at the very least.
1576 12-Oct-07 H
1552 2-Nov-07 H
1544 Spot
1541 Bollinger upper band
1532 Short term trendline support
1528 9 EMA
1523 14-Dec-07 H
1517 21 EMA
1517 Bollinger MA line
1495 Medium term trendline support
1492 Bollinger lower band
1485 26-Feb L
1476 Daily cloud upper
1426 Daily cloud lower
1398 31-Dec L
Gold Technical Analysis for 27 February 2013 (1606)
Gold Forecast for 27 February 2013 (1606)
View: The rebound should continue to 1632/35 with potential overshoot to 1647. However, unless 1660 is breached, the tone is negative and 1555 should be tested once more.
Since last September, there have been two downward slopes which have pinned down any price increase. The overhead price resistance line at 1660 is at some distance from spot, but a clue to the overall direction is the downward resistance line of the oscillators which is closer to being breached. If the line holds, then expect 1555 to be revisited. However, if the line is significantly breached (look for 14d RSI > 55), then prices are likely to go beyond the 1647 overshoot level and the 1660 barrier, right back up to the cloud cover area of 1669-1689.
1796 5-Oct H
1754 23-Nov H
1739 76.4% retrace of Nov12-Feb13 decline
1723 12-Dec H
1704 61.8% retrace of Nov12-Feb13 decline
1703 Bollinger upper band
1696 22-Jan H
1689 Daily cloud upper
1675 50% retrace of Nov12-Feb13 decline
1669 Daily cloud lower
1660 Medium term trendline resistance
1647 38.2% retrace of Nov12-Feb13 decline
1635 61.8% retrace of Feb13-Feb13 decline
1632 Bollinger MA line
1625 4-Jan L
1624 21 EMA
1620 50% retrace of Feb13-Feb13 decline
1612 23.6% retrace of Nov12-Feb13 decline
1606 Spot
1605 9 EMA
1604 38.2% retrace of Feb13-Feb13 decline
1590 15 Aug L
1586 23.6% retrace of Feb13-Feb13 decline
1585 3-Aug L
1560 Bollinger lower band
1555 23-Feb L
Brent Technical Analysis for 26 February 2013 (113.35)
Brent Forecast for 26 February 2013 (113.35)
View: A close below 112.78 in the next few days will see prices continue the descent back to 107.25-110 cloud support area.
The market is testing the 3 month trendline at 113.50. A healthy close above this or indications of a hammer pattern would lend weight to a continuation of the trend. However, oscillator momentum has broken, directional indicators are working off an extreme reading, MACD is in decline with increasing differentials and the 9 EMA looks set to cross the 21 EMA from above. Lower Bollinger bands have yet to be tested but a close below (112.78) should see prices dip back towards the cloud support. 110.97 – 111.17 will provide initial support but given the strong prior ascent, there is a strong chance that the 50% retrace of this advance will be tested (108.69). This view is negated on a few strong closes above the short term uptrend line and any close above the 9 and 21 EMA (115.06 and 114.95) will see the uptrend resume with 122.47 as the next target.
130.52 1-Aug-08 H
122.47 21-Aug-08 H
119.12 Bollinger upper band
118.33 8-Feb H
115.95 Bollinger MA line
115.06 9 EMA
114.95 21 EMA
114.10 Short term trendline resistance
113.78 23.6% retrace of Oct11-Feb11 advance
113.35 Spot
112.78 Bollinger lower band
111.17 14-Sep H
110.97 38.2% retrace of Oct11-Feb11 advance
110.00 Daily cloud upper
108.69 50% retrace of Oct11-Feb11 advance
107.83 11-Jan L
107.25 Daily cloud lower
106.41 61.8% retrace of Oct11-Feb11 advance
103.60 76.4% retrace of Oct11-Feb11 advance
99.05 5-Nov L
